by Editor
A little more than a year ago, while attending a real estate related conference in New York City, we listened to an enigmatic and none too optimistic professor of economics tell a room full of real estate agents that they should start looking for other work, because the housing crisis would continue to decimate their profession. The professor gave this speech after the initial shockwaves from the subprime housing market collapse but before the broader credit crunch took hold of the markets. It turns out that we listened to one of economics rising starts, nicknamed by many in his field as Dr. Doom for his perceived continual pessimism. Dr. Doom, perhaps better known as Dr. Nouriel Roubini, gave a more in depth version this speech one year prior to a much more meaningful group, an audience of economics at the International Monetary Fund. As reported by the New York Times, "he warned, the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence and, ultimately, a deep recession. He laid out a bleak sequence of events: homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt. These developments, he went on, could cripple or destroy hedge funds, investment banks and other major financial institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."
It is surprising how reasonable Dr. Roubini's predictions sound now, but it would have been like telling Yahoo in 2001 that they wouldn't have the search lead in just two years time. Touching on two of his predictions, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, shares of these two pillars of the American economy continue to fall playing a role in providing funding in one shape or form to half of all mortgages. We touched on the state of the two institutions in our Mortgage Mayhem article in July when shares started trading at levels not seen since 1991 and talk of a bailout first started gaining traction. It looked briefly as though they might pull through, but this week again speculation of a bailout reemerged, a move that would wipe out all shareholder value. As a result, shares can't find a bottom. Looking at Freddie Mac alone, they have lost 50% of their value in August alone ($8 to sub $4), 80% since the end of June where they traded at $20, and 90% since the beginning of the year. Freddie and Fannie aren't the problem so much as they are a gauge for a complex series of sub-optimal decisions and aggressive expansion in a system unfortunately set up for massive failure. It is a system that encouraged spending through taking on debt, with the likelihood for paying off that debt coming through speculation and the likelihood for staying in debt guaranteed through excessive fees and the lenders general shift towards fee based revenues and not income from repayment.
The current recession has left its mark on the financial world, and even though we may have hit the technical bottom according to some, those like Dr. Roubini believe we have just begun to feel the impact in other areas, like employment. Even some in the Internet advertising industry have felt the pinch with currently profitable companies trimming heads in anticipation of an uphill battle ahead. Despite the relative size of the Internet economy, in terms of employment, we represent a small fraction of the labor force. It may be the next big thing and spawned some of the most significant public companies in recent times, but it's no Wal-Mart or GM. Google won't be employing 100,000 people any time soon. So many of the prior giant industries have done an about face in the past several decades for a variety of reasons including the well documented one, globalization. America no longer operates as a manufacturing economy, and even its white collar workforce faces pressure. So what does that leave? What can't we easily outsource, and what have most called America - a service economy. It's hard to outsource restaurants, retail help, front desk jobs and the like, even if we can outsource significant chunks of customer service. The problem though is that we suck at this. America sucks as a service economy. More and more, you will find yourself underwhelmed by those you interact with in the service space, and nowhere is this more clear than at JFK airport and one of its restaurants.
You can make some pretty easy and accurate assumptions about those eating in the airport restaurant. The obvious being, they are in a hurry. Yet, you would think those working there have conspired to cause indigestion and missed flights. Quick seating and prompt service? Forget it. Instead, they're run like any place with a captive audience, with zero initiative. And why should they? The airport is probably the last place they want to work. The combination makes for what you get - a disaster - demanding diners and apathetic help. The line of quality people looking to take their place is pretty short, and the supply of demanding diners doesn't look like it will diminish. Not good. Compare that with highly efficient restaurants with a keen eye on turnover and service; they invest more in their people, they make more money, and a decent string of backup players exist ready to take their place. The same holds true in extreme for those in entry jobs in entertainment. So many people want that job just as so many want to work for ESPN that these employers can underwhelm in pay and overwork in time. They are the exception and not the model if we want to suck less overall. The fix is right here in the Internet advertising space - proper incentives. How good is the service from account managers? No offense to our favorite people, but prospectives do not need a minimum IQ. In other words, success and well run business doesn't depend on brains; it depends on each parties feeling connected to the flow of money. Give people a chance to work their ass off and make money within the confines of doing right by the company and person, and they will. If you don't enable that connection, they suck, and everyone is miserable. Then we all live in a world where no one wants to work or spend the money they have. And, if we want to compete globally, we have to suck less.
Editor
DM Confidential
www.dmconfidential.com
e: confi@digitalmoses.com
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"Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain - and most fools do." Dale Carnegie
"Criticism should not be querulous and wasting, all knife and rootpuller, but guiding, instructive, inspiring." Ralph Waldo Emerson
We should suck less...as you so eloquently put it. :)
Although, I think what was missed is that the choice to live within a better economy lies within our grasp.
I recently had a friend who was laid off with hundreds of others from a large corporation. He complained that it was due to the economy...but completely ignored the fact that the company had been practicing faulty legal practices and was undergoing massive lawsuits.
Months went by and bills began to go unpaid. As I became more concerned for him I inquired as to his work prospects.
He proceeded to tell me of his struggle to find work, but I found, in questioning him that his struggle was not in finding a job...because he had received many offers, but was in finding the job he wanted.
Most people in my opinion are not out of work because there is not work to be found, but rather because its not what "they want".
If it were the other way around Monster and Career Builder would be in trouble.
And by the way, this is not the depression....or even a deep recession. In either of the two above, the challenge is not finding the work you want...but finding any work at all.
Anyone who believes otherwise should stand at the entrance for Best Buy and watch all the frivolous spending that goes on...in a recession or depression...people are just fighting to live. Not fighting to be wealthy.
Posted by: Chris Stroud
Date: August 21, 2008
URL:
218284
I was at that same real estate conference in January. There is no doubt that the housing market troubles a lot of people.
As a whole, however, there is a lot of opportunity ahead. The online real estate vertical is very much like the travel industry online in 1998.
Ad agencies and advertisers looking to market and sell through to an anxious audience of realtors, mortgage brokers, insurance, and escrow reps understand the upside.
Since 1999, our free FSBO (for sale by owner) posting service continues to be one of the oldest and largest free real estate listing portals online.
Our audience comprises buyers, sellers, realtors, lenders, and other professionals who bookmark our sites to prospect for free from the thousands of property postings.
It's a privilege to help clients engage with our demographic.
Real estate is a business that runs in cycles.
There are fortunes being made navigating the nuances of this overlooked online vertical called real estate.
Best Regards,
Michael Stark,
Broker Realtor,
President of PostYourProperty.com
Mike@NeoRealEstate.com
949-574-9474
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