As one who write multiple articles per week and has done so pretty much fifty weeks per year for the past six years, it is hard not to admire professional writers like Malcolm Gladwell, Seth Godin, and Guy Kawaski who have not only a seemingly endless pool of insights from which to draw but do so in a frequency that is mind blowing. While able to inspire and often delight, one writer, Thomas Friedman, OpEd columnist for the NY Times, writes with such poignancy that will often make his insights less marketable, as his pieces tend to illuminate issues that many don’t know exist and/or articulate concepts others just feel. That so many people do ultimately read his writing and that he does make it, if not quasi-commercial at least digestible, speaks volumes as well to his skill with prose. Given that he now sits behind the Times pay wall, many may not have followed him as closely as before. Two recent pieces struck a chord and bear sharing.
These pieces may not make a quantifiable impact the way reading Dan Ariely might. Instead they have that lasting resonance, more emotive than rational the way a piece of sculptural art does when on display in an unexpected urban environment.
How Did the Robot End Up with My Job
For those in the performance marketing industry, this entire piece is right up our alley and provides a framework for how we think of the world.
Friedman writes, “In the last decade, we have gone from a connected world (thanks to the end of the cold war, globalization and the Internet) to a hyperconnected world (thanks to those same forces expanding even faster). And it matters. The connected world was a challenge to blue-collar workers in the industrialized West. They had to compete with a bigger pool of cheap labor. The hyperconnected world is now a challenge to white-collar workers. They have to compete with a bigger pool of cheap geniuses — some of whom are people and some are now robots, microchips and software-guided machines.” And, “It is a huge inflection point masked by the Great Recession.” That puts into context an early statement, namely that “there is no doubt that the main reason for our 9.1 percent unemployment rate is the steep drop in aggregate demand in the Great Recession. But it is not the only reason. “The Great Recession” is also coinciding with — and driving — “The Great Inflection.”
Here is the part that hits home for me. In regards to this Great Inflection - from connected to hyperconnected in a world that is also flat, “It is also both a huge challenge and opportunity. It has never been harder to find a job and never been easier — for those prepared for this world — to invent a job or find a customer.” I also like this statement, “The term ‘outsourcing’ is also out of date. There is no more “out” anymore. Firms can and will seek the best leaders and talent to achieve their goals anywhere in the world.” And, “In the hyperconnected world, there is only ‘good’ ‘better’ and ‘best,’ and managers and entrepreneurs everywhere now have greater access than ever to the better and best people, robots and software everywhere.”
What we like about this piece is how well it explains what we already know, but there is something more than that. We fundamentally worry that too many people out of work will cause a problem. Is the divide between those who have work or the intuition to create work only going to increase to a point where we have a new class of the population? If so, what does that mean, because this is one case where one class cannot help the other and we could endure a long and painful cultural experience. A divide is not unity, and while it’s great that we can build faster, better, and unlike ever before, it probably will end up being a double edged sword.
There’s Something Happening Here
When we look back on this year, it will be remarkable just what has transpired, not so much from a pure business perspective but from a global perspective. Three countries have had regime changes - Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. All have included or stemmed from mass protests made possible by the new connected world. The same have even assisted similar gatherings in Tel Aviv and now New York City. On this topic Friedman writes, “There are two unified theories out there that intrigue me. One says this is the start of ‘The Great Disruption.’ The other says that this is all part of ‘The Big Shift.’”
Friedman writes, “Paul Gilding, the Australian environmentalist and author of the book ‘The Great Disruption,’ argues that these demonstrations are a sign that the current growth-obsessed capitalist system is reaching its financial and ecological limits.” Quoting Gilding, “What we now have — most extremely in the U.S. but pretty much everywhere — is the mother of all broken promises.” In the article he is quoted saying, “Yes, the rich are getting richer and the corporations are making profits — with their executives richly rewarded. But, meanwhile, the people are getting worse off — drowning in housing debt and/or tuition debt — many who worked hard are unemployed; many who studied hard are unable to get good work; the environment is getting more and more damaged; and people are realizing their kids will be even worse off than they are. This particular round of protests may build or may not, but what will not go away is the broad coalition of those to whom the system lied and who have now woken up. It’s not just the environmentalists, or the poor, or the unemployed. It’s most people, including the highly educated middle class, who are feeling the results of a system that saw all the growth of the last three decades go to the top 1 percent.”
Friedman offers the counter point to Gilding’s holistic view via John Hagel III, who is the co-chairman of the Center for the Edge at Deloitte, along with John Seely Brown who together authored, “The Power of Pull.” They believe that the merging of globalization and the Information Technology Revolution have come together to create “The Big Shift.” Explains Friedman, “In the early stages, we experience this Big Shift as mounting pressure, deteriorating performance and growing stress because we continue to operate with institutions and practices that are increasingly dysfunctional — so the eruption of protest movements is no surprise.” He adds, “Yes, corporations now have access to more cheap software, robots, automation, labor and genius than ever. So holding a job takes more talent. But the flip side is that individuals — individuals — anywhere can now access the flow to take online courses at Stanford from a village in Africa, to start a new company with customers everywhere or to collaborate with people anywhere. We have more big problems than ever and more problem-solvers than ever.”
Concludes Friedman, “So there you have it: Two master narratives — one threat-based, one opportunity-based, but both involving seismic changes.” His “heart is with Hagel,” but his “head says that you ignore Gilding at your peril.” We say make your money and be smart with your money. You will need it in the near future.
Editor
DM Confidential
www.dmconfidential.com
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