The Falling Knife might not have had the most uplifting news about the year(s) ahead, so we will apologize in advance that this article too doesn't offer much more hope. Name another company, though, that even if spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a month with them doesn't necessarily guarantee you access to a live person, and even if you do have a live person, they will still send you semi-threatening letters not to mention shut you down as though you spent no money with them. Truth is that Google doesn't like you. They don't like me. They don't like anyone who gets in the middle of an advertiser and their traffic. They play nice enough with some middleman, like search engine management companies, and their support staff when reached are generally nice, but as they read off of scripts, they provide little insight or help. The problem of course in all this is, name another company that you must spend money with if you want to make money online. Name another company with as much quality traffic that even those who don't spend with them think about how they can. There really isn't one, at least not one that you can count on to be around in the future. Unlike a truly free market, though, they dictate how it works; their way or the Internet highway. It's no wonder that affiliates and others have tried to crack Facebook apps and other high traffic entities. Email still works massively, but works for a semi-limited set of advertisers, and consistent volume happens for even fewer.
So, why doesn't Google want us, and I mean affiliate / performance marketers? Perhaps, let's just start by saying that they don't need us anymore. And, if you question that. Ask yourself, would you still tell others they should jump on the Google bandwagon? If someone said, I'm thinking about dating or ringtones, what would your advice be? It's only natural but the thrill of Google is gone. It's work. The barrier for success, even entry, continues to increase, and more people now ask how can they make money without Google instead. The landscape feels not unlike a gold rush. Early adopters took a chance without knowing whether it would work. Once word of easy and untapped money spread, the masses came, and many did very well but only for a while. Putting it into Google speak, the words that once worked no longer do and/or you've found that you no longer have the right equipment. Success now means investment, a plan, and a commitment. Yes, people will still get lucky and make money infomercial style, i.e. with little or no money at all!, but the ones that stick around have something that you can't just log in to a system and grab.
Affiliate advertising and affiliates advertising on Google will not go away. Companies need the help of others to make money. If you follow the trends though, you can see that Google has tried to lessen that reliance by offering tools that typically set the affiliate marketer apart - landing page testing and most importantly cpa pricing. Unless you have something that qualifies as a product you don't qualify. Even those with private label brands are not safe, because to Google even they can seem like a double listing. That is why our advice, for those that want longevity in search, is think not just in terms of relevance but in terms of value. What value does your ad / site bring to help fill out the results. You can still play the game, always working around the system, and since it's their system no matter what you build must do so. For those seeking a slightly more stable approach, you must think about how you help the user, and what makes you different from just a loose extension to the end advertiser. The same is true for networks. It's no longer as simple as here is a new offer go blow it out on search. Granted, a few people exist with the right set up where that can happen, but they number fewer and fewer as Google evolves. We're seeing a world of less blasting and more partnering.
In our scenario for a possible future, affiliates become more like application developers; some will work on their own, using ads to monetize, others will start to form much closer relationships with the companies. This doesn't mean that affiliate networks will become obsolete, quite the contrary. Affiliate networks have showed that by handling a key piece of administration - sales and accounts receivable, taking some risk and working off lean margins, that they can fuel growth and become hard to replace. Some affiliates will form larger entities to take the sales relationships in house - think of lead gen companies having their own buyer network - but we remain bullish about what affiliates and affiliate networks can do as they start thinking less of affiliates as the typical emailer who can do a blast or as search arbers who can get something live in minutes. Instead, they will form consultative partnerships, with affiliate networks handling the relationship and evolving into more performance based agencies, i.e., companies with extensive relationships and an understanding of which relationships work best for which type of client. Agencies don't open up every client to every traffic source, nor do they worry about clients and sites working together closely. That's one route that could happen with affiliate marketing, and when it does, it enables affiliates to go beyond just pushers of traffic and add more value than say, running a private label.
Google hates us because by nature we leverage inefficiencies, so our success means they have gaps. They also hate us because we represent mass market, run of network, and they want specialists. It's like real estate; people don't like flippers, but they tolerate them when they've at least fixed up a place before selling. We've moved closer to the latter, and we will never stop looking for the quick hits, but to stop from being too migratory and play in one place, we must adapt, and adapting means learning how to build not just renovate. And, our suppliers, the affiliate networks, need to work with us and enable us in this process to go from renovators, or at best track home builders, to custom creators.
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