We’re two
weeks into the New Year, but unlike years past, this year
doesn’t feel the same as the other beginnings of new years.
I mean, all signs suggest that it should be the same. There
were plenty of New Year’s parties. Even though it’s the 13th
of January, people are still sluggish getting back to work.
There are gift baskets still on desks and gifts just
arriving. The press was filled with year in review articles.
All told it seems like any other year. But something is
still different, even missing.
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When I think back to the end
of other years, two things strike me. The first is the
overwhelming sense to hit monthly, quarterly, and year-end
targets. The second is the glut of holiday promotions that
fill up ones inbox. This year, as with years past, the end
came quickly. One day it was Ad-Tech. The next it was New
Year’s Eve. In times both good and bad the time goes by
quickly, so that alone doesn’t make things unique. What
struck me so differently about this year was that the
running out of time wasn’t accompanied by the concern about
hitting those all important numbers. Like so many companies,
it seemed that the numbers were hit not at the end of
December but in November. What can I say? People had a great
year in 2004. That sense of urgency simply didn’t exist. In
fact, people who don’t normally indulge, be it via spending
or time off were buying substantial purchases and/or taking
weeks vacations.
The second sign that all was
not the same or perhaps that all was more than right with
the world had to do with one’s inbox. I can remember when,
at least for a while, Viagra and mortgage ads didn’t
dominate the inbox. For six weeks out of the year, one could
look forward to email ad for some crappy gadget or toy, that
when viewed at 2am in the morning all of the sudden didn’t
seem so crappy. Whoever says stand alone email has no
branding value obviously wasn’t active online when the tiny
remote control cars were big. It’s too bad those people in
China making them probably couldn’t appreciate the fact that
their item was emailed billions of times.
It’s hard to say for sure why
this year we didn’t see the equivalent of the radio
controlled car. As is the case with many ads, the remote
control car was an email phenomenon. There was no way it
would have worked on the web or even in search. The remote
control car worked because emails were not only inexpensive
to send, but they also got through on a rather widespread
basis. Unlike last year and especially two years ago, emails
today simply don’t get in. Spam filtering works well, a
little too well when it comes to the same offer being seen
by millions of inboxes. Spam products no longer cost money
but are available for free.
There is another good reason
why there wasn’t a tiny flipping monster this year. Were a
unique ad to come out, chances are it would still have a
difficult time getting distribution even were inboxes easier
to reach. This second reason that we didn’t see our
electronic friend is that better offers exist. With an
abundance of top gadgets being advertised for free, finding
one that would perform well, one that wasn’t nearly as cool
and cost money is not an easy task. Put it all together and
emailers no longer have the incentive they once did to blast
the offer. Perhaps too the novelty of the flipping wonder
car simply wore off. It is reasonable to assume that other
online shopping offers proved too compelling for people part
with their impulse dollar.
Despite this year feeling
different than others in the past, hopefully the lack of
urgency and big holiday offer deluge doesn’t imply anything
bad. Preferably, this would mean an auspicious start to the
New Year - a new tradition in direct marketing online. When
Winter 2005 rolls around, if people have hit their numbers
and no remote control car ads, then perhaps we can look
forward to a good 2006. Sorry hard working people in China,
but here’s to no remote control cars this year.
Jay Weintraub
