Digital Thoughts
by Jay Weintraub 

Each year, it seems that decorations for Christmas and announcements of sales begin earlier and earlier. When I was growing up, it used to be that lights didn’t go up on the houses until early December. As the years passed, it wasn’t uncommon to see houses lit up before Thanksgiving and well past New Year’s Day. A similar trend is starting to shape up in the online space. The online parallel, while not decoration related, is the search for the holiday hit. Unlike other industries where planning for the Christmas season starts months if not years in advance, the online direct marketing world often sits back and waits to see what will stick, then scrambles once they find it.


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            Another big difference in the direct marketing world besides the timing of the offers is the offers themselves. Offline marketing sees products from big brands with large marketing budgets trying to generate interest and buzz. Online, the big holiday offer is often some no-name piece of junk. Remember the remote control cars – the tiny ones that didn’t turn but could do some minor acrobatics? I do. We bought several just for fun, and we can say without a doubt that they must have given thousands of kids the biggest disappointments in their life. Amazingly though, I not only saw them in my inbox but started to see them in a few mall kiosks as well. Personally, I kept trying to see who had the best deal and wondering how many degrees of separation there were between the suppliers of the mall kiosks and those for the emailers.

I think most of us have accepted that the online pay for performance space differs from the offline world. The big question now is, what will be the remote control car for this year? Surely more than one company is trying to figure out what it will be and how to be the first one to blast it to the market. Many products have already been tried and done better than expected. You can buy a star for a loved one, purchase some space on the moon, and find stuffed animals that don’t exist in stores, just to name a few. Given the lack of any effort related to building a brand, the fact that we can convince people to purchase as much as they do, amazes and even scares me.

The one main drawback to our method of reaching users does preclude us from advertising those wonderfully lucrative big brands. Ours is one of reach and frequency, with an emphasis on frequency. Some direct marketers interested in the holiday rush feel so much pressure to devise the one killer campaign and to saturate the market before others do. And that feeling points out one other weakness in the direct response model for holiday shopping. There exists a sense that our market, despite its size, can only support one particular product. Marketers scramble to not only figure out what that product will be but to have theirs stand out from the crowd because they instinctively feel that users will buy only one product, and of course they want it to be theirs.

The churn and burn nature of online direct marketing holiday advertising might also explain why so few companies specialize in holiday-only offers. Most that tried were not able to build a sustainable model. This still does not lessen the amount of money to be made during the holiday; it only points to the difficulty and pressure that companies feel come the holiday season. The best and worst aspects of performance-based internet advertising come out. Several companies make an unbelievable amount of money off of what other channels would consider little work. It would seem only online can generate seven-plus figures in revenue with only a fulfillment house and a few creatives. Consequently though, the consumer ends up feeling slightly burned, as rather than having their needs met, they have others not so subtly trying to convince them of what their needs really are.

I cannot wait to see what this year’s hot product will be. No matter what it is, it will show the potential of email and test the limits of other channels. For the hot product tends to be one that users don’t want but impulsively buy. Were email to go away, getting the hot product in the hands of the masses would prove much harder. Doing it through a registration path would require more deftness than most need now. Were it left to search, the total sales volume would drop as users aren’t normally looking for tiny remote control cars when they do their search queries. The pressure is on. Let’s see what it will be. At the very least, you know what to get me. Just see what shows up in your inbox the most.

Jay Weintraub

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